Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator

What is a Kelly Criterion Calculator?

Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator helps you determine the optimal bet size for a particular sports bet, provided you know the win probability for your wager as well as the back odds the bookmaker gives you.

The great thing about the Kelly Criterion Calculator is that it makes a relatively complex mathematical formula as easy as you want it to be. That means you won’t have to engage in complicated mathematical calculations. Instead, you will be able to focus all your energy on placing the best bets possible. All you will need to do is do the following:

• Enter your bankroll
• Type in the decimal odds the bookmaker gives you
• Input the win probability
• Calculate your optimal bet stake

Please note that you should only bet on an outcome if the Kelly Criterion shows a positive value. A negative value (a number below 0) indicates that you shouldn’t back that selection at the given odds.

Kelly Criterion Explained

However, if you want to play around with the Kelly Criterion formula a bit and maybe understand the concept better, this is what you need to know. The formula is f = (b * p - q) / b. Here is what these letters stand for:

• f - Fraction of your bankroll that will be the bet size;
• b - Decimal odds (total net) - 1;
• p - Win probability;
• q = 1 - p; Loss probability

Looks complicated? The Betpack Kelly Criterion Calculator makes calculating the fraction of your bankroll you need to stake a breeze. The following example will help too:

Let’s say your win probability is 65% and the odds you get 1.54. Your total bankroll is $1000. Here’s what bet size you need to use according to the Kelly Criterion:

• b is 1.54 - 1 = 0.54;
• p is 0.65;
• q = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35;
• f = (0.54 * 0.65 - 0.35) / 0.54 = 0.00185

The optimal bet stake size is $1.85 ($1000 betting bankroll * 0.0018)

Why Use Kelly Criterion?

As you probably noticed, the Kelly Criterion is not the easiest betting strategy. That makes utilising the Betpack Kelly calculator even more important. With it, you can instantly find out how much you need to stake for optimal results, as well as make informed betting decisions. The fact that the calculator minimises the probability of making mistakes will be of great significance for bettors too.

Betpack Tips for Effectively Using Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is the strategy of choice for many seasoned bettors. It is based on sound calculations and has yielded results for many punters. Follow these three tips to improve your betting prospects when using the Kelly Criterion:

• Find odds with low house edge: To make the most of the Kelly Criterion, you must wager on odds that offer great value i.e. come with a minimal edge for the sportsbook.
• Decide whether you will apply Kelly conservatively or aggressively: If you are a bettor on a tight budget, you might not want to bet the full bet stake size suggested by the Kelly Criterion.
• Stay on top of the latest changes and developments: It is paramount that you do your sports betting homework and analyze teams and players in detail in addition to using the Kelly Criterion.

Kelly Criterion Example

Let’s explain how the Kelly Criterion works with a real world example of the soccer match between Chelsea and Manchester United, with the following odds: Chelsea Win 2.80, Draw 3.20, Manchester United Win 2.40. The probabilities are: Chelsea Win (25%), Draw (40%) and Manchester United Win (35%). Let’s see what the Kelly Criterion suggests for each of these three outcomes.

Conclusion

The Kelly Criterion allows you to discover the optimal bet size relevant to your bankroll for favourable betting odds. Unfortunately, the mathematical formula for the Kelly Criterion is slightly complex and dissuades many bettors from using it.

That’s where Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator comes in. With it, you can instantly determine the best bet stake size for a particular outcome and odds. That makes it an essential tool for all bettors, particularly those using the Kelly Criterion strategy frequently. Try the calculator today and see if the Kelly Criterion might work for you.