Kelly Criterion Bet CalculatorKelly Criterion Bet Calculator

The Kelly Criterion tells you how much of your bankroll you need to stake on a particular wager, but the formula is slightly complicated. Fortunately, you can use Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator and instantly find out. Input your bankroll, odds and probability, and discover the ideal bet size.

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Table of Contents

    What is a Kelly Criterion Calculator?

    Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator helps you determine the optimal bet size for a particular sports bet, provided you know the win probability for your wager as well as the back odds the bookmaker gives you.

    The great thing about the Kelly Criterion Calculator is that it makes a relatively complex mathematical formula as easy as you want it to be. That means you won’t have to engage in complicated mathematical calculations. Instead, you will be able to focus all your energy on placing the best bets possible. All you will need to do is do the following:

    • Enter your bankroll
    • Type in the decimal odds the bookmaker gives you
    • Input the win probability
    • Calculate your optimal bet stake

    Please note that you should only bet on an outcome if the Kelly Criterion shows a positive value. A negative value (a number below 0) indicates that you shouldn’t back that selection at the given odds.

    Kelly Criterion Explained

    However, if you want to play around with the Kelly Criterion formula a bit and maybe understand the concept better, this is what you need to know. The formula is f = (b * p - q) / b. Here is what these letters stand for:

    • f - Fraction of your bankroll that will be the bet size;
    • b - Decimal odds (total net) - 1;
    • p - Win probability;
    • q = 1 - p; Loss probability

    Looks complicated? The Betpack Kelly Criterion Calculator makes calculating the fraction of your bankroll you need to stake a breeze. The following example will help too:

    Let’s say your win probability is 65% and the odds you get 1.54. Your total bankroll is $1000. Here’s what bet size you need to use according to the Kelly Criterion:

    • b is 1.54 - 1 = 0.54;
    • p is 0.65;
    • q = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35;
    • f = (0.54 * 0.65 - 0.35) / 0.54 = 0.00185

    The optimal bet stake size is $1.85 ($1000 betting bankroll * 0.0018)

    How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator

    Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator is straightforward to use and provides additional options, such as fractional Kelly betting, which can be quite handy if you are on a tight bankroll. Here’s what you need to do to use our Kelly Criterion Calculator.

    • Estimated Time Needed: 10:00
    • Tools Needed: Account
    • Supplies Needed: Time, Money
    Find Selections with Competitive Odds Step 1

    Find Selections with Competitive Odds

    When using the Kelly Criterion, you must bet on sportsbook odds that have a small house edge. The Kelly Criterion only makes sense if you get positive values at the end of your calculations. If your odds are not competitive, those values will be negative, and Kelly would advise you not to bet on that outcome.

    Provide Your Bankroll Step 2

    Provide Your Bankroll

    You now need to navigate to Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator. Start by typing in your betting bankroll. This is the budget you use to gamble online. It may be a weekly or monthly gambling bankroll, but you must enter the exact amount you have allocated for wagering during a particular period.

    Enter the Odds and Probability Step 3

    Enter the Odds and Probability

    Next, locate the empty spaces where you should enter the odds the bookmaker gives you and the probability of your bet winning. Type in the odds in a decimal format and enter the probability percentage.

    Set the Bet Fraction You Want to Stake Step 4

    Set the Bet Fraction You Want to Stake

    The great thing about Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator is that you don’t have to wager the amount it suggests if you are not comfortable with it. Instead, you can stake only a fraction. To do that, choose a value between 0 and 1, where 0 is no bet stake and 1 is the entire bet stake size suggested by the Kelly Criterion.

    Why Use Kelly Criterion?

    As you probably noticed, the Kelly Criterion is not the easiest betting strategy. That makes utilising the Betpack Kelly calculator even more important. With it, you can instantly find out how much you need to stake for optimal results, as well as make informed betting decisions. The fact that the calculator minimises the probability of making mistakes will be of great significance for bettors too.

    Betpack Tips for Effectively Using Kelly Criterion

    The Kelly Criterion is the strategy of choice for many seasoned bettors. It is based on sound calculations and has yielded results for many punters. Follow these three tips to improve your betting prospects when using the Kelly Criterion:

    • Find odds with low house edge: To make the most of the Kelly Criterion, you must wager on odds that offer great value i.e. come with a minimal edge for the sportsbook.
    • Decide whether you will apply Kelly conservatively or aggressively: If you are a bettor on a tight budget, you might not want to bet the full bet stake size suggested by the Kelly Criterion.
    • Stay on top of the latest changes and developments: It is paramount that you do your sports betting homework and analyze teams and players in detail in addition to using the Kelly Criterion.

    Kelly Criterion Example

    Let’s explain how the Kelly Criterion works with a real world example of the soccer match between Chelsea and Manchester United, with the following odds: Chelsea Win 2.80, Draw 3.20, Manchester United Win 2.40. The probabilities are: Chelsea Win (25%), Draw (40%) and Manchester United Win (35%). Let’s see what the Kelly Criterion suggests for each of these three outcomes.

    Bet Kelly Criterion Calculation (b*p-q)/b=f Kelly Criterion Bet Size with a $1000 Bankroll

    Chelsea Win

    (0.25*(2.8-1) - 0.75) / (2.8 -1) = - 0.375

    Negative Value - Shouldn’t Be Considered


    (0.4*(3.2-1) - 0.6) / (3.2 -1) = 0.127

    $127 Bet Stake Recommended

    Man Utd Win

    (0.35*(2.4 - 1) - 0.65) / (2.4 - 1) = - 0.114

    Negative Value - Shouldn’t Be Considered

    Benefits of the Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator

    The Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator is a useful sports betting tool that offers a myriad of perks, making wagering online a more straightforward and enjoyable experience. These are the benefits associated with Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator:

    Superior to regular calculators and manual calculations

    Accurate bet size amounts

    Make the most of your bankroll

    Bet consistently and systematically

    You would need to do multiple calculations with a normal calculator or manually to get the results Betpack’s Kelly Calculator will provide in seconds.

    The Kelly Criterion Calculator offers the fastest way to discover the optimal bet stake amount for a particular wager.

    With the Kelly Criterion Calculator, you minimise the risk and capitalise on enticing house edges, increasing the potential for bankroll growth.

    One of the biggest perks of using the Kelly Calculator is the consistent and methodical approach you will adhere to while betting.


    The Kelly Criterion allows you to discover the optimal bet size relevant to your bankroll for favourable betting odds. Unfortunately, the mathematical formula for the Kelly Criterion is slightly complex and dissuades many bettors from using it.

    That’s where Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator comes in. With it, you can instantly determine the best bet stake size for a particular outcome and odds. That makes it an essential tool for all bettors, particularly those using the Kelly Criterion strategy frequently. Try the calculator today and see if the Kelly Criterion might work for you.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What Is a Kelly Criterion in Betting?

    The Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal bet size and percentage of your bankroll you need to use on a particular bet.

    How Do You Calculate the Kelly Criterion?

    The easiest way to calculate your optimal bet stake size is to use Betpack’s Kelly Criterion Calculator, where you will input your bankroll, odds, win probability, and the fraction of the stake.

    Do You Have to Follow the Kelly Criterion Rigorously?

    No, you don’t. Our Kelly Criterion Calculator allows you to set a percentage (fraction) of the suggested bet size if you want a more conservative approach.

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